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MNI FX Techs: EURO-DOLLAR: Pullback Tests 21-DMA
RES 4: $1.3853/73 Low 1 Feb, 38.2% retracement of Jan/Mar decline
RES 3: $1.3838/39 High 9 Feb, 55-DMA, 23.6% of Dec/Mar decline
RES 2: $1.3819 High 17 March
RES 1: $1.3775 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3620
SUP 1: $1.3683 61.8% retracement of March recovery
SUP 2: $1.3530 Low 5 March
SUP 3: $1.3490 Current Bollinger band base
SUP 4: $1.3420/37 76.4% of April/Dec rally, Low 2 Mar
COMMENTARY: The euro pulled back from the top of the daily Bollinger
band and closed just under the 21-DMA of $1.3635, which turns resistance
and weakens the outlook further. There are bear-crosses in the
stochastic and momentum studies, although these have taken place from
neutral (not overbought) levels. $1.3683 is a 61.8% retracement of the
March recovery.
CABLE: Holds Gains for Now
RES 4: $1.5583 38.2% retracement of Nov/Mar decline
RES 3: $1.5485 Current top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.5420/22 61.8% of Feb/Mar decline, 38.2% of 2010 decline
RES 1: $1.5382 High 18 March
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.5232
SUP 1: $1.5215 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5180 21-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.4963 Minor support line 1 Mar
SUP 4: $1.4866/73 Low 2, 10 March
COMMENTARY: Cable's recent bull-divergence in the daily stochastic study
has been joined by a bull-cross in the 5 & 21-DMAs as cable breaks out
of the recent flag pattern. However, momentum is fading and bulls need
to overcome double Fibonacci level at $1.5420/22. The 21-DMA will be the
focus for bears, at $1.5180.
DOLLAR-YEN: Remains in Ichimoku Cloud
RES 4: Y91.65 200-day moving average
RES 3: Y91.24 76.4% retracement
RES 2: Y91.09/12 High 12 Mar, Minor resistance line 7 Jan
RES 1: Y90.73 Minor resistance line 19 Feb
CURRENT LEVEL: Y90.47
SUP 1: Y90.10/15 Ichimoku cloud base, 21 & 100-DMA, Kijun line
SUP 2: Y89.65 Low 9 March
SUP 3: Y88.24 61.8% retracement of Oct/Dec rally
SUP 4: Y88.13 Low 4 March
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds just within the narrow Ichimoku cloud of
Y90.10/55, where the base meets the 21 & 100-DMAs as well as the Kijun line
within Y90.10/15. This leaves the pair in a potentially pivotal position
as daily studies start to unwind support and both the daily stochastic
and 10-day momentum risks a bear-cross.
EURO-YEN: Fibonacci Levels in Focus
RES 4: Y125.80 55-day moving average
RES 3: Y125.70 Base of Ichimoku cloud, Top of the daily Bollinger band
RES 2: Y125.22/29 High 22 Feb, 38.2% of 2010 decline
RES 1: Y123.35 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
CURRENT PRICE: Y123.12
SUP 1: Y122.80 21-day moving average
SUP 2: Y122.65 Low 18 Mar
SUP 3: Y122.43 Kijun line, 50% retracement
SUP 4: Y121.46/78 Low 9 March, 61.8% retracement
COMMENTARY: The daily studies are stalling in euro-yen with momentum
turning lower and the stochastic showing a bear-cross. This comes as the
recovery stalled at the Fibonacci level and mid-Feb highs of Y125.22/29,
turning bear's attention back to near-term Fibonacci levels from
Y123.08, Y122.43
EURO-STERLING: Tests 100-DMA
RES 4: stg0.9196 Resistance line from December, Bollinger band top
RES 3: stg0.9150/54 High 1 March, 30 Nov
RES 2: stg0.9000 5-day moving average
RES 1: stg0.8982 21-day moving average, Low 5 March
CURRENT PRICE: stg0.8955
SUP 1: stg0.8916 100-day moving average, Low 18 Mar
SUP 2: stg0.8907 50% retracement of Feb/Mar rally
SUP 3: stg0.8850 200-day moving average, 61.8% retracement
SUP 4: stg0.8840 High 11 Feb
COMMENTARY: Euro-sterling slumped through the 21-day moving average,
which turns resistance along with the March 5 low of stg0.8982. The move
found support at the 100-DMA of stg0.8916 as momentum recovered some
ground, but the daily stochastic study remains weak. The main Fibonacci
retracements are stg0.8907 and stg0.8850, which meets the 200-DMA.
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