March 11, 2010
• MNI FX Techs: EURO-DOLLAR: Bull Divergence as Market Hugs 21-DMA
• CABLE: Daily Stochastic Recovers Within Overall Downtrend
• DOLLAR-YEN: Holds Within Ichimoku Cloud
• EURO-YEN: Daily Studies Still Turning Higher
• EURO-STERLING: Within Bollinger Band
MNI FX Techs: EURO-DOLLAR: Bull Divergence as Market Hugs 21-DMA
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RES 4: $1.3853 Low 1 Feb
RES 3: $1.3838/39 High 9 Feb, 23.6% of Dec/Mar decline
RES 2: $1.3783/89 Top of Dec/Mar channel, High 17 Feb RES 1: $1.3736 High 3 March, Current Bollinger band
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.3646
SUP 1: $1.3530 Low 5 March
SUP 2: $1.3480 Current Bollinger band base SUP 3: $1.3420/37 76.4% of April/Dec rally, Low 2 Mar SUP 4: $1.3404 61.8% retracement of the post-Oct 2008
COMMENTARY: The euro is building on recent positive daily studies but a definitive close above the 21-day moving average, now at $1.3610, is required to put bulls in control and confirm the bull-divergence signals on daily studies, as overall, we are still in a falling channel range from early Dec, where top comes in at $1.3783.
CABLE: Daily Stochastic Recovers Within Overall Downtrend
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RES 4: $1.5420/22 61.8% of Feb/Mar decline, 38.2% of 2010 decline RES 3: $1.5350 Breakout level RES 2: $1.5299/10 50% retracement of post-17 Feb decline, 21-DMA RES 1: $1.5197 High 8 March
CURRENT LEVEL: $1.4974
SUP 1: $1.4866/73 Low 2, 10 March
SUP 2: $1.4781 Current base of the daily Bollinger band, Low 1 March
SUP 3: $1.4659 High 23 Feb
SUP 4: $1.4619 Low 29 Apr
COMMENTARY: Cable remains under pressure, despite the recovery in the daily stochastic, as an overall downtrend dominates. Bulls will want to build on this recovering stochastic to seek a return to the 8 March high of $1.5187. Initial resistance is from the 5-DMA at $1.5030.
DOLLAR-YEN: Holds Within Ichimoku Cloud
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RES 4: Y91.90 200-day moving average
RES 3: Y91.24 76.4% retracement
RES 2: Y90.85 Top of the Ichimoku cloud RES 1: Y90.65/70 61.8% retracement, 55-day moving average
CURRENT LEVEL: Y90.38
SUP 1: Y89.65 Low 9 March
SUP 2: Y89.45 Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 3: Y89.25 Base of the Ichimoku cloud
SUP 4: Y88.13/24 Low 4 March, 61.8% retracement of Oct/Dec rally
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen trades just atop the 21 & 100-DMAs as well as the Kijun line of the Ichimoku cloud within Y90/10/15 but also remains within the Ichimoku cloud of Y89.25/90.85. The daily studies suggest an upside break of the cloud is more likely.
EURO-YEN: Daily Studies Still Turning Higher
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RES 4: Y126.65 55-day moving average
RES 3: Y125.22/29 High 22 Feb, Bollinger band, 38.2% of 2010 decline RES 2: Y124.77 Low 1 Feb RES 1: Y124.00 high 10 Mar
CURRENT PRICE: Y123.31
SUP 1: Y122.60 21-day moving average
SUP 2: Y121.46/80 Low 9 March, Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud SUP 3: Y120.10 Current Bollinger band base SUP 4: Y119.60/66 High 28 Jan 2009, Low 25 Feb
COMMENTARY: The daily studies are turning higher in euro-yen, negating the recent bear-flag pattern and turning bull's attention to Fibonacci level and mid-Feb highs at Y125.22/29.
EURO-STERLING: Within Bollinger Band
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RES 4: stg0.9411 High 13 Oct
RES 3: stg0.9240 High 26 Oct
RES 2: stg0.9207/21 Res line from December, 76.4% of Oct-Feb decline RES 1: stg0.9150/54 High 1 March, 30 Nov
CURRENT PRICE: stg0.9115
SUP 1: stg0.8982 Low 5 March
SUP 2: stg0.8915 100-day moving average SUP 3: stg0.8890 21-day moving average SUP 4: stg0.8840 200-day moving average, High 11 Feb
COMMENTARY: Euro-sterling continues to see a stretched daily stochastic, although it should be noted that these remain below historic levels of reversal and the pair is well within the Bollinger band top, which is up at stg0.9230. While stg0.9150 remains the near-term high, the main Fibonacci retracements are at stg0.8965, stg0.8907 and stg0.8850.
Initial support is at stg0.9070 from the 5-day moving average.